We have been closely watching the Crypto Currency Market if you’re able to call it that, because of the fake data, fraud, and related problems. One thing sticks out – it isn’t really so distinct from FX, commodities, futures, or stocks. Market dynamics are market dynamics. And as most readers of the fine site will already know – many traders lose. There’s been analysis done for this, everyone knows how this ends. A few early investors come up with a bundle and thousands or millions even are still holding the bag. From one perspective, a bubble is similar to a ponzi scheme. In MLM, there are some who amass wealth – the founders.
If you aren’t the founder – how can you tell which Crypto will likely be the following Bitcoin? You don’t. You have no idea. You can go to Korea and do all the homework you desire, the fact remains that no-one can see the future or a top analyst may be wrong from time to time.
Quant traders have the identical doctrine all of them share – they’re smart enough to find out how stupid these are. They know their own flaws and so they endure a greater power- that is certainly Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power is currently so massive that it’s entirely possible that you can now using their own residence office create a sensible trading plan that does well. Naturally, like with the laws of market dynamics, you may also create a robot that’s worth exactly zero – a major pile of crap. When a quant makes an algorithm it’s either priceless or worthless. If it functions, he has effectively designed a money making machine. If it doesn’t work, there is absolutely no value to anyone not academics.
How do we know what method works, how to construct a functional bot or purchase one? There are obvious conflicts appealing in people who sell bots. The internet continues to be dominated by good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly maintain their methods to themselves. Selling a product or service, and trading a robot, are very 2 different skills.
Crypto thus far has shown the same as most markets: impossible to trade.
While many are kicking themselves because of buying and holding, I will tell you like a trader and I speak for several in the room that there is no way I’d have had the patience to take a seat on the hugely profitable position for 3 years whilst the price goes parabolic.
This is exactly why quants develop and trade algorithms – picking entries and exits can prove to be brain-destroying. There are dangers and risks with robots too of course, but you are of the different nature.
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